The 2020 Oscars Predictions: Who Will Win Best Picture? 1917 Or Parasite?

We’re just a few hours away from the 92^nd Annual Academy Awards, where Sam Mendes’ 1917 and Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite are the ones to look out for in the Best Picture race.

1917 has already won Best Picture at the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards, which means the WWI epic is likely to repeat its success at the Oscars. (In the past decade, all but two PGA winners went on to win Best Picture.)

But don’t rule out Parasite: it won best ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild. (Remember 2009’s Best Picture Oscar winner Slumdog Millionaire? Like Parasite, the Danny Boyle movie received zero Oscar nominations for its actors, but won the best ensemble SAG Award.)

Here, 8days.sg, with a little help from contributor Tay Yek Keak, try to predict the winners in the major categories.

1/4

1/4

Best Picture: It'll be a close race between 'Parasite' and '1917'.

Best Picture:
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
JoJo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Parasite
Tay Yek Keak:
Who should win: Parasite
One thousand percent Parasite should win the Oscar. But this is just me saying. And I have a big fat zero vote. Here's why it should be this South Korean gem, the best film about the haves and have nots since the world became as unequal as Bill Gates and Bill Gates’ gatekeeper. America has seen the movie. They don't understand it. They know it's terrific though. And they think it’s about them.
Who will win: Once Upon A Time… in Hollywood
Here's a fun fact — Quentin Tarantino has never won Best Picture. Not even for Pulp Fiction, the one which should've won easily. But this time, I think the voters, longing for the good old carefree times of hippies, cultists, mini skirts and 1960s retro nostalgia, are gonna bring it home for him. And I do mean “home” because the title even has “Hollywood”, their own cesspool of excesses, in it.
Douglas Tseng
Who should win: Parasite
Because I saw it in my dreams. Seriously, Parasite is the only movie on this list that I couldn’t stop thinking about way after the lights were on: How do I review this movie without spoilers? It’s a genre-defying, high-minded, and immensely entertaining film, masterfully crafted by a storyteller at the top of his game. If Parasite wins Best Picture, imagine the goodwill — and headlines —it’ll generate. (Besides, didn’t the Academy leak the winners’ list? They said they didn’t. Rrrright.)
Who will win: 1917
It’s the safe choice of the evening; as consolation, Parasite will walk away with Best International Feature. (It's also the year most of the Academy voters were born in...kidding.) Sam Mendes’ video-gamey (he was inspired by his kids playing Red Dead Redemption, apparently), ‘one-take’ (but clearly isn’t) WWI thriller has already won the PGA Award, which is usually considered a reliable bellwether. For the Academy members who didn’t vote Saving Private Ryan for Best Picture, here’s their chance to redeem themselves.
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Best Director:
Bong Jong-Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Tay Yek Keak
Who should win: Bong Joon-Ho
Firstly, Bong is no one-hit wonder. His Memories Of Murder is one of the greatest crime dramas of all time and I'm convinced that the superb first season of HBO’s True Detective basically copied it. Secondly, Parasite is a masterpiece half created by him (he co-wrote the screenplay) which makes him doubly gifted. Thirdly, he has a cute English translator tagging along with him in the US and I wanna see her again on that Oscar stage.
Who will win: Bong Joon-Ho
I know it's Martin Scorsese, Quentin Tarantino, Sam Mendes with his amazing one-take (more or less) war film, 1917, and Joker's Todd Phillips. Incredible field. But Parasite has current buzz. Some how, some hey, I just have a sneaky feeling that momentum is growing by the minute and Ah Bong is going to win sensationally.
Douglas Tseng
Who should win: Bong Joon-Ho
Best Picture and Best Director go hand in hand. Like Yek Keak, I totally agree that True Detective ripped off Memories of Murder. Is that why HBO is making a Parasite mini-series — as a thank-you?
Who will win: Sam Mendes
He’s already won the DGA Award. If he wins, he should have a go at adapting Red Dead Redemption into a movie — as a thank-you to his children.
2/4

2/4

Just skip to the speeches: Best Actor and Actress shoo-ins Joaquin Phoenix and Rene Zellweger.

Best Actor:
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Tay Yek Keak
Who should win: Joaquin Phoenix
When was the last time you saw a film about a truly crazy person that blows you away and makes a billion dollars? It's like Open House Day at a mental institution. Phoenix is the main reason for this. The only thing that can stop this strange dude from nailing it is if the largely liberal Academy voters aren't sure about rewarding a guy who plays a wacko when they already have one running their country.
Who will win: Joaquin Phoenix
Everything said above, plus this — go see Gladiator again. It's been 20 years. Now I realise that I've got it all wrong. Contrary to popular belief, in the movie, it wasn't Phoenix, the madman emperor, who was scared of Russell Crowe, the he-man gladiator. Now that I've seen Joker about 10 times, I'm absolutely convinced that way back then, it's actually the other way round. Even tough old Russ was terrified of that imperial psycho. This isn't just mere acting talent here. This is pure acting terror.
Douglas Tseng
Who should win: Joaquin Phoenix
Everyone's going gaga over his performance as if this were the first time we’ve seen someone playing a character with a mental condition. It's hard to ignore Phoenix because his performance is the loudest in the room. I wish Eddie Murphy (My Name is Dolemite) and Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems) were in this group.
Who will win: Joaquin Phoenix
He’s won the Golden Globe, the SAG, the BAFTA — the Academy should just name the award after him and skip to his acceptance speech. The ceremony would be shorter by five minutes, give or take.
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Best Actress:
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Tay Yek Keak
Who should win: Saoirse Ronan
I'm very partial to Saoirse Ronan. Oh, what the heck. I'm in love with her and wish to engage in lengthy intercourses, er, sorry, discourses about the emancipation of 19th-century little or big or whatever size women with her. She's a fantabulous actress and next year or the year after or the year after the year after, ad infinitum, she's gonna win Best Actress. But, wait, there's Renee Zellweger. She got seriously drunk, I think, playing melancholic alcoholic Judy Garland and may have damaged her liver.
Who will win: Renee Zellweger
Of course, Ms Z will win. She's not Renee in Judy. She is Judy Garland in the Second Coming. Tell you what. If she doesn't snag the trophy and write about it in Bridget Jones's Diary, I'll dress up in gorgeous drag as the divine Ms Garland in a shimmering dress and sing ‘Somewhere Over The Rainbow’ at a real rainbow. This, I solemnly promise. Or you can send the Tin Man after me.
Douglas Tseng
Who should win: Lupita Nyong'o
No, wait, she isn’t nominated. Shoot, did anyone see Us? (Then again, it’s a common knowledge that Academy members don’t see that many movies.) Seriously, just give the Oscar to someone who hasn’t won one.
Who will win: Renee Zellweger
Like Phoenix, she’s won pretty much every award out there: She’s preordained to win! This is why I hate the Oscars — they are soooo predictable. All Zellweger has to do next is act sincere and shocked when they announce her name. Academy members love movies about themselves, one of their own. Well, maybe not Liza Minelli, Judy Garland’s daughter — she didn’t approve the making of this biopic. You won’t too if you’ve seen Zellweger on the Netflix drama What/If.
3/4

3/4

Sure win one: Brad Pitt and Laura Dern in the Best Supporting Actor and Actress categories.

Best Supporting Actor:
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Tay Yek Keak
Who should win: Brad Pitt
You know, I don't believe Pitt could've kicked Bruce Lee's butt the way he did in Tarantino's no-respect Fist of Fantasy revision of history. But I forgive Brad because, in hippie-slang, I dig him as Leonardo DiCaprio's stuntman in the movie and, man, he makes the best stand-in/driver/tv antenna repairman/dog walker/killer of sickos ever. Everything that his boss, DiCaprio, threw onto the floor in fits of anger in OUATIH, Pitt was really good in picking them up to clean up the damn mess.
Who will win: Brad Pitt
This one is so easy to call, I'm closing the betting office right now. With due respect to the other very significant nominees — Tom Hanks, Anthony Hopkins, Al Pacino and Joe Pesci — there are no more odds to give out here. Game over. Case closed. Adios amigos. Heck, I'm so certain it's gonna be Pitt I'll go right into the pit and swear that if he doesn't win, my offer to dress up as Judy Garland still stands … as soon as I can get a stuntman to do it for me.
Douglas Tseng
Who should win: Brad Pitt
As much as I hate his character to disrespecting Bruce Lee, he’s the only guy who hasn’t won an Oscar... for acting (he won one for producing 12 Years a Slave). It’s a pity that they didn’t nominate Timothée Chalamet’s hair. So lovely, that.
Who will win: Brad Pitt
Let’s face it, I’m just waiting for his acceptance speech. What jokes does he (or his writers) have in store this time? Is he going to update his relationship status with a certain Friend? Who will the camera cut to in the audience when he makes fun (again) of his love life?
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Best Supporting Actress:
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, JoJo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Tay Yek Keak
Who should win: Florence Pugh
I have to admit. I really didn't notice Ms Pugh in earlier movies — Midsommar, Fighting With My Family, The Commuter (was she even in that movie with Liam Neeson?) — or how to pronounce her surname until I saw her in Little Women. Then, I couldn't take my eyes off her and believe me, that's quite a feat considering both Saoirse Ronan and Emma Watson were in that film. I'm still gasping at how she, the sinister sister, burned her writer-sister's (Ronan) labour-of-love manuscript so ruthlessly in LW. What a fascinating actress to behold. As long as she doesn't play a librarian.
Who will win: Scarlett Johansson
I know, I know. Deep in my heart, stomach and other nether regions, I'm kinda sympathetic to Scarlett. Because, c'mon, give the girl a break 'cos she died fighting Thanos in Avengers: Endgame. Why her? Sob. By the way, I think those Oscar voters feel the same way too. She's a bona fide American classic with noms for both Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. I mean, she took on bloody bastard Hitler in Jojo Rabbit, for goodness sake. Yep, this naked guy statuette is surely heading her way after her work in Marriage Story loses to Renee's Great Oz Moment in the Best Actress category.
Douglas Tseng
Who should win: Florence Pugh
Yek Keak, I love Florence Pugh too, but I think she is nominated for the wrong movie — it should’ve been Mid-mother-father sommar. Maybe that’s why I’m so drawn to Pugh in Little Women. You’re right: she’s mesmerising. Can’t wait to see her in Black Widow. Can you picture her name on the posters and TV spots? “Academy Award Nominee Florence Pugh…” Or winner.
Who will win: Laura Dern
She is a mathematical certainty! She’s already won the key awards — the Golden Globe, the SAG, BAFTA — so she’s a shoo-in. Dern’s performance in Marriage Story as a divorce attorney is a really a glorified cameo but somehow it clicked with award voters. Maybe because they’ve encountered a divorce attorney like her before.
4/4

4/4

The write stuff: 'Little Women' and 'JoJo Rabbit' are vying for Best Adapted Screenplay.

Best Original Screenplay:
Knives Out, Rian Johnson
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
1917, Krysty Wilson-Cairns & Sam Mendes
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
Parasite, Bong Jong-Ho & Han Jin-Won
Tay Yek Keak
Who should win: Parasite
Boy, this is a tough one because it's down to the quirky foreign man from left field versus the quirky American man from further left field. I mean, wouldn't you wanna be at the table when Mr Bong and Mr Tarantino talk movies? Say, how about combining for an insanely subversive class-warfare masterpiece where Samuel L Jackson plays a driver with a gun to Song Kang Ho's quixotic rich man. Now, this time, though, because Bong is at his career peak and Quentin has always been Quentin, I'd give the gold to the former.
Who will win: Parasite
Who knows what goes on in the twisted minds of those Academy voters? But this bunch voting for Original Screenplay are probably the brainiest of the whole unsubtle lot and they know unclassifiable and unattainable eccentric quality when they see it. Plus I'm pretty sure that most of them are in jealous awe and know that they'd probably need to smoke a bong to write like Bong.
Douglas Tseng
Who should win: Parasite
Obvs it’s the most original of the nominated screenplays. Frankly, I’m sick of QT. I’m not a fan of Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood. Happy?
Who will win: Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
If the voters are feeling conservative (they don’t trust anything that’s not in English), they will give QT his third screenplay Oscar and watch his head get bigger. Shannon Lee will be watching this very closely.
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Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Irishman, Steven Zailian
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
Joker, Todd Phillips & Scott Silver
Little Women, Greta Gerwig
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten
Tay Yek Keak
Who should win: Greta Gerwig
I know Jojo Rabbit, very peculiar Hitler Youth dramedy, is adapted from Caging Skies by novelist Christine Leunens. But if you told me it’s adapted from Mein Kampf by some whalenut named Adolf Hitler, man, the Oscar is going straight to the rabbit. No questions asked. No Nazi left unthrashed. So, I say Little Women should win because Greta Gerwig has skilfully modernised Louisa May Alcott's 1868 classic novel into Girls Club 2020.
Who will win: Anthony McCarten
But, of course, the Academy committed a crime by not nominating Gerwig for Best Director in the first place. Which means that in their misogynistic way, they'll probably give the prize to somebody good, white and male. I pick Kiwi playwright, Anthony McCarten, for adapting his own play for the ecumenically fab The Two Popes.
Douglas Tseng
Who should win: Taikia Waititi
For having the cajones to make a family movie about a Nazi youth who has a goofy Hitler for an imaginary friend.
Who will win: Taika Waititi
He’s already taken home the BAFTA and Writers Guild Award. Fans of Thor: Ragnarok and What We Do in the Shadows will be cheering…

Catch the 2020 Oscars live on mewatch.sg/Oscars and Channel 5 on Monday (Feb 10), 9am (SG Time), with red-carpet coverage starting at 7.30am (same-day repeat at 6pm), followed by the main ceremony at 9am (same-day repeat at 10.45pm).
Main photo: Pyron Tan